A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
